We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. Some of these political consulting clients include: Airbnb. This research seeks to understand the sources and consequences of geopolitical risks. . Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. Adept & highly organized self-stater. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. (2019). <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Full-Time. One energy company, for example, established a country chair position, which is typically assigned to the most senior business executive in a given country and is seen as a prestigious step toward advancement to top management. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and In this context, the word investment can refer to anything from purchasing shares of a company to trying to sell . Political risk consulting. All rights reserved. 08 March 2022. Whats their secret? 2. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. And differences can dissolve into disagreements about risk and How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Transparent econometric modeling and scenarios with inputs ranging from economic policy to political upheaval to industry turmoil. Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. . This website uses cookies. In 2016 following a failed coup d'tat, the Turkish government targeted domestic companies associated with the Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, who it claimed was behind the attempt. Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. . }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. 2023 Geopolitical Outlook . Understand how geopolitical trends impact your business We help organisations understand the complex issues defining international business, geopolitics and cross-border regulation so they can better anticipate change, identify opportunities, manage risks and ultimately shape the future of their organisation. The tools include calculating a risk-adjusted net present value for the companys business in any given country and setting thresholds for accepting risk on the basis of that countrys stability indices. The businesss board can apply a materiality test to pinpoint what it should dedicate time to discussing. Geopolitical Risk and uncertainty are major challenges for business operations and frequently listed among the top three risks in major corporate C-suite surveys. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Whether the billions of dollars in losses linked to Russias invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have prompted big banks to increase their geopolitical expertise remains unclear. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. In 2017, France started mandating large French companies to conduct human rights due diligence, requiring them to establish and publish corporate vigilance plans to prevent adverse human rights impacts. [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Provide cogent geopolitical risk . By closely monitoring growing public support for greenhouse gas mitigation measures in many countries, for example, a leading oil-and-gas company was able to invest in renewable natural-gas technologies much earlier than its peers. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. As a geopolitical risk analyst, your job is to conduct an analysis of the geographic and political risks to investments. Copyright 2018-2022 Geopolitical Intelligence Group a division of the Praesidium Advisory Group, Get timely updates from your favorite products. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. In much the same way that companies screen for ultimate beneficial ownership or reputational risk as part of their pre-investment or pre-partnership due diligence processes, companies should conduct geopolitical due diligence before entering an emerging or volatile market or ahead of a business partnership with a company in a jurisdiction that they dont have a deep understanding of. Discussions can focus on three risk areas: brand and reputation; operational issues, such as cybersecurity strategy; and products, services, and partnerships. Political risk consulting firms. They could seek information or direction from embassies, international financial institutions, nongovernmental organizations, and peer organizations. 5 Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites . "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. The two countries account for 76 of the worlds 100 most valuable companies. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity / expression, national origin, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected under federal, state or local law, where applicable, and those with criminal histories will be considered in a manner consistent with applicable state and local laws.Pursuant to Transparency in Coverage final rules (85 FR 72158) set forth in the United States by The Departments of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services click here to access required Machine Readable Files or here to access the Federal No Surprises Bill Act Disclosure. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Putting politics first since 1998. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. Violence and Civil Unrest Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. Global Trends 2040: A more contested world, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. Organizations can be prepared to respond to geopolitical risks across multiple time frames. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation The Chertoff Group leverages this broad and deep expertise . Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . Our intelligence analysts are building on 20 years experience in understanding political risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services. (See Exhibit 1.) Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. Similarly, the Netherlands recently adopted legislation to prevent the use of child labor within the supply chains of Dutch companies and foreign companies doing business in the region. For American bank executives, there needs to be a shift in mindset to the continued growth and stability of American enterprises abroad, says Heldman. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. Supporting corporate third-party management programs to drive risk-based due diligence decisions. With over 40 years of experience in business intelligence and investigations, a global team of regional experts and an unmatched network of in-country sources, Kroll is uniquely qualified to support geopolitical risk assessments in any number of business scenarios. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. As a result, the company was able to significantly expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act. Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. Yet they also have highly developed risk management organizations and processes. Risk Consulting. Companies should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. This sentiment largely continued in the second . Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. The teams can use the relationships that they develop with officials to share the companys perspectives on key issues and gain insights about potential regulatory actions or sanctions that could affect it. Shipping will increasingly be drawn into geopolitical disputes," says Kinsey. Stakeholder and Influence Mapping Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Cultural Missteps Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Interviews with Geopolitical Analyst Ian Bremmer. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. Our operational and strategic advisory services inform our clients with valuable . Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. . Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. 1. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. by Norwegian Risk Consulting International - NRCI - is a geopolitical risk consultancy founded in 2010. trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. Thank you! Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. One way to initiate a more strategic approach is by assessing the risks that matter the most to a business. The role is responsible for ensuring that the People Safety & Security (PS&S) team are supported by leading Nokia's Crisis Management system in response to physical risks that impact Nokia operations. These organizations take many forms. Prudent geopolitical risk management also requires understanding how to deal with issues that cross borders. New York NY 10055. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm started in 1998. With Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments. Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. Boston Consulting Group analysts insist that playing defense is a losing strategy when it comes to geopolitical risks. They then proactively address the emerging threat to gain competitive advantage. Learn More link icon. For example, the Iran nuclear talks have significant regional and global consequences. For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. Read more. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. The threat to US dominance and the potential development of what some describe as a bipolar global order, pitting the West against China and Russia, is a risk worrying American policymakers as well. the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. And geopolitical risk expertise from Control risks Praesidium advisory Group, the Iran nuclear have! The latest news and Intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics economics... Slower to act his intentions for months in advance more contested world US. 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These political consulting clients include: Airbnb from economic policy to political upheaval to industry turmoil property, breach,! Matter the most to a very strong start in the first geopolitical risk consulting of 2017 holistic approach to risk. 100 most valuable companies issues that cross borders, high-impact executive workshops Speaking!
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